Una primera aproximación al estudio del efecto del cambio climático sobre la provisión de servicios de los ecosistemas en región pampeana (Argentina)
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Date
2017-06
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Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias - UNR
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El análisis del impacto del cambio climático sobre la provisión de servicios de los ecosistemas (SE) es esencial porque representan el resultado final de una cadena de interacciones presentes en los agroecosistemas. El objetivo del trabajo fue evaluar el efecto del cambio climático sobre los niveles de SE provistos por los agroecosistemas pampeanos (Argentina). A partir de modelos probabilísticos basados en Redes Bayesianas, se estimó la provisión de cuatro SE (Balance de C del suelo, Balance de N del suelo, Control de contaminación del agua subterránea, y Control de emisión de N2O) en tres zonas agrícolas (Norte de Córdoba, Centro de Buenos Aires, y Sur de Entre Ríos). La cuantificación de los modelos se realizó para un escenario base (año 2010) y tres escenarios a futuro (años 2020, 2050, y 2080) considerando el desempeño de tres cultivos (maíz, soja, y trigo). Las estimaciones a futuro se realizaron mediante la aplicación de coeficientes de cambio proyectados para variables ambientales y productivas provistas por el Panel Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático. La provisión de cada SE presentó diferencias mínimas entre escenarios, encontrándose las mayores diferencias entre cultivos y entre zonas. Las diferencias en provisión se observaron también entre SE, siendo el servicio Balance de N del suelo aquel que presentó los menores valores de provisión. En resumen, los SE seleccionados presentaron baja sensibilidad al cambio climático en Región Pampeana.
The assessment of the effect of climate change on ecosystem services (ES) provision is essential because they represent the outcome of a chain of interactions present in agroecosystems. The objective of this work was to assess the effect of climate change on ES provided by Pampean agroecosystems (Argentina). Using a probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks, the provision of four ES (Soil C balance, Soil N balance, Groundwater contamination control, and N2O emission control) was estimated at three agricultural regions (North of Córdoba, Center of Buenos Aires, and South of Entre Ríos). The quantification of these models was performed considering a base scenario (year 2010), three future scenarios (years 2020, 2050, 2080) and the performance of three crops (corn, soybean, and wheat). The forward-looking estimations were made by applying coefficients of projected environmental and productive changes provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each ES showed minimal differences between scenarios, the major ones between crops and regions. Differences in provision were also observed among ES, and Soil N balance was the one which showed the lowest values. In summary, these four ES exhibited low sensitivity to the effect of climate change in the Pampas.
The assessment of the effect of climate change on ecosystem services (ES) provision is essential because they represent the outcome of a chain of interactions present in agroecosystems. The objective of this work was to assess the effect of climate change on ES provided by Pampean agroecosystems (Argentina). Using a probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks, the provision of four ES (Soil C balance, Soil N balance, Groundwater contamination control, and N2O emission control) was estimated at three agricultural regions (North of Córdoba, Center of Buenos Aires, and South of Entre Ríos). The quantification of these models was performed considering a base scenario (year 2010), three future scenarios (years 2020, 2050, 2080) and the performance of three crops (corn, soybean, and wheat). The forward-looking estimations were made by applying coefficients of projected environmental and productive changes provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each ES showed minimal differences between scenarios, the major ones between crops and regions. Differences in provision were also observed among ES, and Soil N balance was the one which showed the lowest values. In summary, these four ES exhibited low sensitivity to the effect of climate change in the Pampas.
Keywords
cambio climático, servicios de los ecosistemas, agroecosistemas pampeanos, climate change, ecosystem services, Pampean agroecosystems